May 12, 2026

 

TOP NEWS

 

War update: President Donald Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest peace proposal, intensifying fears that the critical shipping route could remain effectively blocked for a prolonged period. Reports further suggested that President Trump is expected to meet with his national security team to consider a potential restart of military operations, while also revisiting plans to escort commercial ships through Hormuz. Oil prices slightly extends to around $105/ barrel.  Copper futures in the US surged to $6.4 per pound on Monday, the highest on record, as concerns about supply and the speculative longer-term demand.

 

Indian Hotels: Consolidated revenues grew by 14% y-o-y to Rs. 2,765 crore, beating our expectation of Rs. 2,668 crore. Hotel segment revenue grew 14% y-o-y to Rs. 2,452 crore, while Air Catering business reported revenue growth of 13% y-o-y to Rs. 315 crore. RevPar grew by 10% y-o-y to Rs. 13,250 crore, with occupancy higher by 100 bps y-o-y to 78%. Within the hotel segment, room revenue grew by 13% y-o-y to Rs. 1,226 crore, F&B revenue grew 9% y-o-y to Rs. 774 crore, management fees rose by 30% y-o-y to Rs. 223 crore and other operating income (including Atmantan revenue) increased by 31% y-o-y to Rs. 229 crore.

 

Hindustan Zinc: Shares are trading higher, tracking gains in silver prices. The price of silver jumped 7% the most in a single day since February. The price of silver is about $86.60 up about 7%. Positive read through for Hindustan Zinc. Company and reported a 68% year-on-year jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 5,033 crore for Q4FY26, compared with Rs 3,003 crore a year earlier. Positive

 

Satin Creditcare Network reported strong Q4 FY26 results with consolidated net profit soaring significantly to ₹162 crore from ₹21.9 crore YoY. Consolidated NII was up 54% YoY as NIMs improved to 15.2% from 14.02% QoQ and 11.33% YoY. Assets under management (AUM) grew 19% YoY and 14% QoQ, reflecting strong growth and operational expansion. Asset quality also improved as GNPA ratio declined to 3.1% versus 3.3% QoQ while NNPA stood at 0.9% versus 1.1% QoQ.

 

Syrma SGS: FY26 revenue growth came in at ~27% YoY slightly below the guided 30% mark but posted a strong beat on EBITDA margins clocking 12% in FY26 vs 10% guided. The beat was led by richer product mix – autos, industrial growing more than 30% YoY and IT and Railways growing more than 70% YoY. Company became Free cash flow positive after a few years which is another positive in our view. Working capital cycle was managed well. However, Syrma and Premier Energy decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of K-Solare(operates in solar inverters and ev batteries) which was announced a few qtrs back. Overall Positive

Manorama Industries : Revenue up 68.1% YoY at ₹391.34 Cr, up 7.9% QoQ.  EBITDA up 38.1% YoY at ₹84.60 Cr, down 18.8% QoQ, EBITDA Margin at 21.6% vs 26.3% YoY and 28.7% QoQ. Consolidated Net Profit up 6.1% YoY at ₹42.48 Cr, down 41.2% QoQ and was down as company booked Rs 317 Cr MTM provision on forex hedging contracts due to currency volatility. Company announced Rs 460 Cr capex plan over 2–3 years for integration, refinery expansion, cocoa butter alternative manufacturing, and a new processing plant in Burkina Faso. Operating cash flow remained strong at Rs 259 Cr, with working capital cycle improving to ~125 days in FY26. FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,357 Cr vs guidance of ₹1,300 Cr, thereby surpassing growth expectations.

 

 

RESULTS PREVIEW

 

 

Company

Net Sales (Rs. cr.)

OPM (%)

Adjusted PAT (Rs. cr.)

Q4FY26E

Q4FY25

YoY%

QoQ%

Q4FY26E

Q4FY25

YoY (bps)

QoQ (bps)

Q4FY26E

Q4FY25

YoY%

QoQ%

KPR Mill

1,809

1,769

2.3

23.3

18.8

18.8

3

-124

238

205

16.5

14.3

 

MACRO WRAP

  • Trump remains rhetoric about the re-escalation of war in Middle east after rejecting Iran’s proposal and warned the US–Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” raising fears Hormuz will stay effectively closed, as Iran seeks an end to the US naval blockade and some sanctions relief. President Trump also voiced support for a gasoline tax holiday to ease costs for domestic consumers as he prepares to meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 13 -15 May. Bullish for Oil and Gold prices
  • Kevin Warsh’s Fed Board nomination cleared an initial Senate hurdle in a 49–44 vote, with a final confirmation vote to succeed Jerome Powell as chair expected later this week.
  • Japan’s household spending fell 2.9% y/y in March 2026, a fourth consecutive drop and worse than the expected 1.3% decline, with broad weakness across food, utilities, clothing, and transport. Spending on housing, household goods, healthcare, and education rose, but overall outlays fell 1.3% m/m, reversing February’s 1.5% gain.
  • US existing home sales ticked up 0.2% to a 4.02 million annual rate in April 2026, below the 4.05 million forecast, as higher mortgage rates weighed. Sales fell in the West but rose in the Midwest, while inventory increased 5.8% to 1.47 million (4.4 months’ supply). The NAR cited improved affordability as incomes outpaced home price gains.
  • The DJIA, the S&P500, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively. The Eurostoxx 50 declined 0.3%. The Dollar Index rose 0.1% to 97.96. EUR-USD was flat at 1.1780. The US 2Y yield rose 7bp to 3.95% and the 10Y yield climbed 6bp to 4.41%. The German 10Y yield rose 4bp to 3.04%. The UK 10Y yield rose 9bp to 5.00%. Brent crude oil prices climbed 2.9% to USD104.21 as concerns grow over a protracted standoff. Gold rose up 0.4% to USD4,736. Silver gained 7.1% to USD86.06.
  • Data watch: we have ADP weekly employment change and CPI for April. The market consensus for CPI is 3.7% yoy vs 3.3% previously, and the core CPI is expected to rise 2.7% vs 2.6% previously and Apr’s NFIB small business optimism (est. 96.1 vs. 95.8 prior).

INVESTMENT CALL

First Cut: Indian Hotels Company Q4FY26 (Consolidated) results – Strong Q4; beat on all fronts

·       Consolidated revenues grew by 14% y-o-y to Rs. 2,765 crore, beating our expectation of Rs. 2,668 crore. Hotel segment revenue grew 14% y-o-y to Rs. 2,452 crore, while Air Catering business reported revenue growth of 13% y-o-y to Rs. 315 crore. RevPar grew by 10% y-o-y to Rs. 13,250 crore, with occupancy higher by 100 bps y-o-y to 78%. Within the hotel segment, room revenue grew by 13% y-o-y to Rs. 1,226 crore, F&B revenue grew 9% y-o-y to Rs. 774 crore, management fees rose by 30% y-o-y to Rs. 223 crore and other operating income (including Atmantan revenue) increased by 31% y-o-y to Rs. 229 crore.

·       EBIDTA margin stood largely flat y-o-y at 35.2% as change in Airport levy method negatively impacted Air catering business operating margins by 110 bps. EBITDA margin came in higher than our expectation of 20.9%. EBITDA grew by 13.5% y-o-y to Rs. 973 crore and adjusted PAT grew by 14.3% y-o-y to Rs. 645 crore, beating our expectation of Rs. 558 crore.

·       During Q4, IHCL operationalised 14 hotels with 795 rooms. At FY26-end total inventory (operational + signed) stands at ~630 hotels with ~64,400 rooms. The board has recommended a dividend of Rs. 3.25 per share for FY26.

·       View: We shall review our estimates and come out with a detailed note soon. Currently we have a Buy rating on the stock.

 

Results (Consolidated)                                                                         Rs. crore

Particulars

Q4FY26

Q4FY25

y-o-y (%)

Q3FY26

q-o-q (%)

Net Sales

2,765.3

2,425.1

14.0

2,842.0

-2.7

EBITDA

972.7

856.8

13.5

1,075.8

-9.6

Adjusted PAT

625.2

541.9

15.4

658.8

-5.1

Share of profit from associates

20.2

22.7

-10.8

19.9

1.5

Adjusted PAT after MI

645.4

564.6

14.3

678.7

-4.9

Extraordinary item

0.0

-1.9

-

275.5

-

Reported PAT

645.4

562.7

14.7

954.2

-32.4

EPS (Rs.)

4.4

3.8

15.4

4.6

-5.1

 

 

 

bps

 

bps

GPM (%)

90.7

90.3

37

90.3

43

EBITDA margin (%)

35.2

35.3

-15

37.9

-268

NPM (%)

22.6

22.3

26

23.2

-57

Tax rate (%)

24.7

25.0

-34

29.0

-434

 

Actual vs estimates                                                   Rs. crore

Particular

Q4FY26

Q4FY26E

Var (%)

Net Sales

2,765.3

2,667.7

3.7

EBITDA

972.7

940.2

3.5

Adjusted PAT

625.2

557.8

12.1

 

 

 

bps

EBITDA Margin (%)

35.2

35.2

-7

NPM (%)

22.6

20.9

170

 

 

Stock Update: Thermax Q4FY26 Results – Recovering order inflows- Maintain Hold

Rating: Hold     Reco Price: Rs 4,550       Price Target: Rs 4,900

 

  • Revenues grew 11% y-o-y led by industrial products (up 16% y-o-y) and industrial Infra (up 4% y-o-y) segments. Net profit grew 23% y-o-y.
  • Operating profit rose 25% to Rs 374 crore, led by growth in sales and gross margins. OPM rose 120 bps.
  • Order bookings rose 112% y-o-y, owing to a large supercritical order of Rs. 1,630 crore from a private player. order book grew by 27% to Rs 13,600 crore.
  • With stock prices, order book visibility and premium multiples having already run up, we maintain a Hold rating;. Thermax trades at ~64x/49x its FY2027E and FY2028E EPS.

 

Valuation (Consolidated)                                                           (Rs. crore)

Valuations (Rs. crore)

FY25

FY26

FY27E

FY28E

Net Sales

10,389

10,694

12,461

14,222

Growth (y-o-y, %)

11.4

2.9

16.5

14.1

Operating profit

908

1,026

1,271

1,508

OPM (%)

8.7

9.6

10.2

10.6

Adj. Net Profit

628

660

803

1,041

Adj. EPS (Rs.)

55.7

58.6

71.3

92.5

Growth (y-o-y, %)

6.5

5.1

21.6

29.7

P/E

82.1

78.1

64.2

49.5

P/B

11.6

10.4

9.4

8.4

EV/EBIDTA

62.0

55.3

44.4

36.5

ROCE (%)

16.2

15.9

15.6

34.7

RONW (%)

13.4

13.8

13.8

34.4

 

Result Summary                                                                                                Rs. Crore

Particulars (Rs. crore)

Q4FY26

Q4FY25

YoY%

Q3FY26

QoQ%

Revenue

3,428

 3,085

 11.1

 2,635

 30.1

Total Expenditure

3,054

 2,785

 9.6

 2,380

 28.3

Operating Profit

374

 300

 24.9

 255

 46.9

Other Income

54

 77

 (30.1)

63

 (14.4)

Interest

42

 31

 35.5

 34

 23.7

Depreciation

54

 45

 19.1

 53

 1.4

PBT

334

 301

 11.1

 289

 15.7

Tax

90

 95

 (5.6)

84

 7.3

Adjusted PAT

249

 205

 21.7

 170

 46.7

Reported PAT

251

 205

 22.6

 211

 18.6

EPS (Rs.)

22.3

 18.2

 22.6

 18.8

 18.6

Margins

BPS

 BPS

OPM(%)

10.9

 9.7

 120

 9.7

 125

NPM (%)

7.3

 6.6

 63

 6.4

 82

Tax Rate (%)

26.9

 31.6

 (477)

29.0

 (213)

 

Stock update: Titan Company Q4FY26 (Consolidated) result update – Good Q4; positive guidance maintained

Reco: Buy                  Reco. Price: Rs. 4,205                 Price Target: Rs. 4,950

  • Consolidated revenue (ex-other income and bullion & digi-gold)/adjusted PAT grew 46%/31% y-o-y, respectively. EBITDA margin fell 311 bps y-o-y to 7.2%.
  • Revenue CAGR guidance maintained at 15-20% for the next 3 years. Margin largely due to an adverse mix; margins to remain steady if gold prices remain stable.
  • PM’s announcement on curtailing gold purchases for a year is a short-term sentiment shock. However, Titan is better positioned to weather the same owing to its strong balance sheet, superior competitive positioning and business moat.
  • Stock trades at 62x/48x its FY27E/FY28E earnings, respectively. We maintain a Buy with an unchanged PT of Rs. 4,950.

 

Valuation (Consolidated)                                                   Rs. crore

Particulars

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27E

FY28E

Revenue (excluding bullion sales)

46,751

57,143

75,832

91,156

1,06,976

EBITDA Margin (%)

10.4

10.3

9.5

10.2

10.8

Adjusted PAT

3,494

3,737

5,146

6,089

7,866

Adjusted EPS (Rs.)

39.3

42.0

57.8

68.4

88.4

P/E (x)

107.0

100.1

72.7

61.5

47.6

RoNW (%)

32.9

35.6

37.7

33.7

33.3

RoCE (%)

28.5

26.1

26.7

26.2

29.2

 

Results (Consolidated)                                                                               Rs. crore                                                   

Particulars

Q4FY26

Q4FY25

y-o-y (%)

Q3FY26

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

20,115.5

13,775.2

46.0

24,441.4

-17.7

Bullion & digi-gold

6,804.0

1,140.0

-

975.0

-

Total Revenue

26,919.5

14,915.2

80.5

25,416.4

5.9

EBITDA

1,936.5

1,536.2

26.1

2,713.4

-28.6

Adjusted PAT

1,139.3

870.2

30.9

1,798.1

-36.6

Extraordinary item

-38.1

0.0

-

113.7

-

Reported PAT

1,177.5

870.2

35.3

1,684.4

-30.1

Adjusted EPS (Rs.)

12.8

9.8

30.9

20.3

-36.6

 

 

 

bps

 

bps

GPM (%)

16.8

22.8

-601

19.8

-300

EBIDTA margin (%)

7.2

10.3

-311

10.7

-348

NPM (%)

4.4

5.8

-146

6.6

-225

Tax rate (%)

25.3

28.5

-324

24.3

96

 

 

Stock update: Intellect Design Arena Q4FY26 (Consolidated) result update – AI focus to broaden growth horizons

Reco: Buy                  Reco. Price: Rs 760                 Price Target: Rs. 885

  • Revenue rose 16.1% q-o-q (up 17.1% y-o-y) to Rs 851.7 crore, largely led by sequential improvement in license fees.
  • Management reiterated long-term margin vision of 20–25% EBITDA, on near term fluctuations due to upfront investments.
  • We are optimistic on Intellect Design Arena’s valuation, given improving margins, rising share of high margin platform revenues, and visible operating leverage as recent investments scale.
  • Accordingly, we increase our price target to Rs 885 at 24x P/E on FY28E EPS with a Buy rating.

 

Valuation (Consolidated)                                                                                                                          Rs. crore

 

Rs. Cr

FY25

FY26

FY27E

FY28E

Total Revenue

2,495.5

3,043.0

3,591.1

4,227.3

EBITDA margin %

21.1

19.2

20.0

21.0

Adjusted Net Profit

332.8

376.3

421.3

524.3

% YoY growth

(1.3)

13.1

12.0

24.4

EPS (Rs)

23.5

26.5

29.6

36.9

PER (x)

44.0

28.7

25.6

20.6

P/BV (x)

5.2

3.4

3.0

2.6

EV/EBITDA

27.1

24.2

18.8

14.8

ROE (%)

12.7

12.6

12.5

13.8

ROCE (%)

13.5

11.8

13.1

14.9

 

 

Results (Consolidated)                                                                               Rs. crore         

Particulars

Q4FY26

Q4FY25

Q3FY26

YoY (%)

QoQ (%)

Net sales

851.7

727.4

733.5

17.1

16.1

Software development expenses

369.0

286.9

345.6

28.6

6.8

Selling & marketing and General & Administrative expenses

232.1

181.3

224.2

28.0

3.5

Research & Engineering expenses

62.6

53.5

61.4

17.0

1.9

Total Expenses

663.7

521.7

631.1

27.2

5.2

EBITDA

188.0

205.7

102.4

-8.6

83.6

Depreciation & amortisation

58.7

41.4

53.2

41.7

10.3

EBIT

129.3

164.2

49.2

-21.3

162.9

Other income

34.9

20.4

20.1

71.7

74.0

Misc

0.0

-1.4

0.0

-100.0

0.0

Exceptional item

0.0

0.0

-30.8

0.0

-100.0

Share of profit/(loss ) of Associate Companies

2.1

-2.3

0.6

-192.8

243.9

PBT

166.4

182.3

39.0

-8.7

326.2

Tax provision

41.9

45.7

9.6

-8.5

338.3

EO

0.0

0.0

30.8

0.0

-100.0

PAT

120.2

135.3

28.4

-11.2

322.6

APAT

120.2

135.3

59.3

-11.2

102.8

 

                                          

Stock update: Britannia Industries Q4FY26 (Consolidated) result update – Soft Q4; recovery to be gradual

Reco: Buy                  Reco. Price: Rs. 5,520                 Price Target: Rs. 6,550

  • Q4FY26 missed the mark on all fronts, with revenue rising just 6.5% y-o-y, OPM flat y-o-y at 18.1% (versus 19.1% expected) and adjusted PAT rising 7.1% y-o-y.
  • Performance was hit by disruptions arising from the West Asia conflict and prevalence of dual prices in the trade channel for LUP among players.
  • Company expects to undertake calibrated price hikes in Q1FY27 and continue cost optimisation measures to offset RM inflation.
  • Stock trades at 47x/40x its FY27E/FY28E EPS, respectively. We maintain Buy on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 6,550.

 

Valuation (Consolidated)                                                   Rs. crore

Particulars

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27E

FY28E

Revenue

16,769

17,943

19,106

21,160

23,426

OPM (%)

18.9

17.8

18.6

18.9

19.3

Adjusted PAT

2,140

2,213

2,474

2,861

3,288

Adjusted EPS (Rs.)

88.8

91.9

102.7

118.8

136.5

P/E (x)

62.2

60.4

54.4

46.5

40.4

RoNW (%)

57.3

53.4

52.3

50.8

48.9

RoCE (%)

33.0

36.4

38.9

41.2

44.3

 

Results (Consolidated)                                                                               Rs. crore                                                   

Particulars

Q4FY26

Q4FY25

y-o-y %

Q3FY26

q-o-q %

Total revenues

4,718.9

4,432.2

6.5

4,924.1

-4.2

Operating Profit

852.9

805.2

5.9

982.8

-13.2

Adjusted PAT

603.6

563.8

7.1

686.9

-12.1

Share of profit from associates

-19.3

-4.7

-

-2.7

-

Exceptional item

95.4

0.0

-

-2.1

-

Reported PAT

679.7

559.1

21.6

682.1

-0.4

EPS (Rs.)

25.1

23.4

7.1

28.5

-12.1

 

 

 

bps

 

bps

GPM (%)

42.1

40.1

203

42.7

-61

OPM (%)

18.1

18.2

-9

20.0

-189

NPM (%)

12.8

12.7

7

14.0

-116

Tax rate (%)

25.0

25.5

-52

25.7

-74

             

 

 OTHER NEWS

 

Shyam Metalics and Energy reported a 45.87% year-on-year (YoY) increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 319.09 crore in Q4 FY26, compared with Rs 218.75 crore in Q4 FY25. Revenue from operations jumped 26.34% YoY to Rs 5,240.36 crore for the quarter ended 31 March 2026.