April 28, 2026

TOP NEWS

War update: Tehran reportedly signaled via Pakistan that hostilities could cease if Washington lifted its naval blockade, agreed to a revised framework governing transit through Hormuz, and provided assurances against future military action. The US has expressed skepticism toward the proposal and is expected to respond with counteroffers in the coming days, with Iran’s nuclear program continuing to be a key point of contention. As per the news flow Trump is not happy with the proposal as it has not reference to the Nuclear program. \

RBI Issues Expected Credit Loss (ECL) Guideline

• Under Stage I, Standard assets will carry a 12-month expected loss provision. Under Stage II, there is a significant risk increase and will carry lifetime loss provisions. Stage III would mean credit-impaired and will also carry a lifetime loss provision, which can also go up to 100% in unsecured exposures.
• The existing definition of NPA remains unchanged and an account will continue to be classified as an NPA if it remains 90 days past due. In case a single credit facility of a borrower is classified as an NPA, all other exposures to the same borrower across the bank must also be tagged as a NPA, as per the guidelines.
• Instead of recognizing NPAs at the end of the month or a quarter, the new guidelines state that the recognition of NPAs must be done as part of the day-end process on the day the said account meets the 90-day overdue criteria.
• Stage 2 provisioning rises sharply from nearly 40 basis points to 500 bps.
• PSU Banks are likely to see a higher hit as their one-time net worth could see an impact.
• We broadly expect PSU Banks may see a rise of 20-25 bps in their credit costs as well.
• For the private banks are relatively insulated and that the impact for them will be very small as the system is well capitalized with their CET-1 ratio above 13%.

Overall, the move is a positive for higher home loan exposure but impacts for those with an elevated 30-90 days past due bucket particularly for unsecured loans, MFI, Vehicle Finance and also it impacts public sector banks as their credit cost may rise and hit is expected on net worth.

The Phoenix Mills: The company reported a strong Q4FY26 performance with net profit up 50% YoY to Rs 403 crore. Revenue grew 21% YoY to Rs 1,233 crore, while EBITDA rose 34% YoY with margins expanding to 60% from 55%, reflecting strong operating leverage. Operationally, the company reported record retail consumption of Rs 16,578 crore in FY26 (+21% YoY), with Q4 consumption up 31% YoY to Rs 4,251 crore, indicating strong demand across malls. In the commercial segment, Phoenix added 2.8 mn sq. ft. of office space, taking total portfolio to 4.8 mn sq. ft. with 70% occupancy. The hospitality segment remained steady, with St. Regis Mumbai reporting 6% RevPAR growth in Q4 and 7% for FY26, with occupancy at 86%. The residential segment also saw strong traction, with sales rising to Rs 471 crore vs Rs 212 crore last year. Overall, the performance reflects strong consumption trends, improving office leasing, and steady growth across segments.

Union Bank: NII came in at Rs 786 crore, up a robust 30.9% YoY and 4.5% QoQ driven by strong loan growth and margin expansion on YoY basis. NIM contracted marginally by 2 bps QoQ to 3.87%, though it was up 27 bps YoY, reflecting the benefit of lower funding costs and improved asset quality over the prior year. Opex grew 21.0% YoY and 2.6% QoQ to Rs 497 crore, largely driven by business volume additions and branch capacity expansion. Operating profit was a strong beat at Rs 580 crore vs. estimate of Rs 542 crore (+7%). PAT came in at Rs 360 crore, up 24.9% YoY and 8.3% QoQ, ahead of our estimate of Rs 350 crore (+3% beat). Advances surged 26.5% YoY and 8.2% QoQ to Rs 65,875 crore, Deposit growth was also healthy at 23.3% YoY and 11.1% QoQ to Rs 78,308 crore, supporting the bank's balance sheet expansion.

AU Small Finance: NIM expanded 24 bps QoQ to 5.96% (ahead of our estimates), driven by three factors: 12 bps decline in cost of funds, 6 bps benefit from lower slippages/higher NPA resolution, and ~7 bps seasonal benefit from lower February day count. As a result of which NII was up 23.3% YOY helped by margin expansion and robust loan growth. Opex was higher due to business volume and capacity addition however lower credit cost drove PAT at 65.2% YoY to Rs 832 crore. Overall asset quality improved on sequential basis as GNPA and NNPA ratios declined to 2.03% and 0.74%, while fresh NPA addition was also lower.

Jindal Saw (-ve): The company reported a sharp 52% year-on-year decline in net profit for the fourth quarter FY26 at Rs 139.4 crore, compared with Rs 291 crore in the same period last year. Revenue fell 8% to Rs 4,633.5 crore from Rs 5,046.6 crore, while EBITDA dropped 34.7% to Rs 480.9 crore from Rs 736.1 crore. Margins also contracted significantly to 10.4% from 14.6% a year ago. Despite the weak quarterly performance, the company’s board recommended a dividend of Rs 2 per equity share (face value Rs 1) for FY26, subject to shareholder approval, with a total payout of about Rs 127.9 crore.

Coal India: Q4 FY26 was the strongest quarter of FY26, with PAT up 12% YoY and revenue up 6% YoY, driven by higher e-auction volumes and better realisation. In Q4FY26, Coal India reported a consistent performance. With coal sales of 199 million tonnes (down 1% YoY), total operating income for the quarter was Rs 46,490 crore (up 6% YoY). The quarter's reported EBITDA was Rs 12,673 crore, with corresponding EBITDA margins of 27.3% (up ~57 bps YoY). Employee costs declined 2% YoY in Q4 due to 4% manpower reduction (no repeat of one-time executive pay provision which was booked in earlier quarters). Compared to Rs 593/tonne in Q4FY25, EBITDA/tonne for Q3FY26 was Rs 636/tonne. PAT increased by 15% year over year to Rs 10,908 crore. With a cumulative dividend of Rs 26.5 per share for FY26, the business announced a final dividend of Rs 5.25 per share.

Bajaj Housing Finance Q4 results: Net profit rises 14% to Rs 669 crore: Bajaj Housing Finance reported a 14% y-o-y rise in Q4 profit, as strong loan growth helped offset narrowing margins competition in the home-loan market intensifying. As easing inflation and lower taxes supported household spending and corporate borrowing. The company's AUM rose 23% y-o-y to Rs 1.41 lakh crore for the quarter ended March 31, with loan disbursements also jumping 23% to Rs 17,506 crore. NII fell to Rs 945 crore from Rs 963 crore in the preceding quarter, even as loan assets expanded 5.5% sequentially, underscoring the margin compression playing out across the housing finance sector. The company's portfolio yield - the weighted average return on the loan book - stood at 9.1% in the March quarter, down from 9.7% a year earlier, as competitive pressure from banks pushed home loan pricing lower. Net interest margin slipped to 3.8% from 4% in the previous quarter. Asset quality was largely stable, with gross bad loans as a percentage of total loans holding at 0.27% at the end of March. 

MACRO WRAP

• Market outlook remains dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, even as Iran offered the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but postpones nuclear talks. US White House subsequently said the proposal is being discussed by the President and his national security team and Trump’s press secretary said he would address the matter “very soon” and that his “red lines” with respect to Iran have been made very clear. This morning, WTI crude opened its Asia trade slightly higher, and it is currently trading above US$96.60. and Brent crude futures above $108 per barrel.
• China's industrial profits grew 15.8% yoy in March, pushing first quarter gains to a robust 15.5%. This marked the strongest first quarter pickup in five years and exceeded broader market expectations. However, this headline figure masks a structural divergence within the manufacturing base. Positive for metals and mining sector
• The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% at its policy meeting on Tuesday, with the central bank gathering overshadowed by political drama surrounding the leadership handover. A Justice Department decision last week to drop a controversial criminal investigation of the Fed has cleared the way for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.
• The UST market weakened on Monday as uncertainty over the war persisted, while sentiment remained cautious ahead of the April FOMC meeting, with some curve steepening amid prospects of a Kevin Warsh-led Fed that will likely be more dovish. However, the market was cautious amid the heavy issuance of Treasury securities this week.
• The DJIA slipped 0.1% yesterday. The S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. The Eurostoxx 50 fell 0.4%. The Dollar Index edged down 0.1% to 98.48. EUR-USD was flat around 1.1720. The US 2Y yield edged up 2bp to 3.80% and 10Y rose 4bp to 4.34%, as investors weighed the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict alongside resilient domestic economic data.
• Brent crude oil prices rose 2.8% to USD108.20, climbing for a sixth consecutive session as investors focused on the growing supply crunch caused by the standstill of flows through the strait. Gold fell 0.6% to USD4,682
• Data watch: Bank of Japan policy decision today, followed by US Conference Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing and business condition indices, and Dallas Fed services activity.

INVESTMENT CALL

First Cut: Ultratech Cement Q4FY26 Consolidated Results – Revenue broadly in line with estimates, EBITDA and PAT above expectations

• Revenue stood at Rs. 25,799 crore, up 11.9% YoY and broadly in line with our estimates. Growth was driven by 9% YoY volume expansion to 44.71 mnt and a 2.6% YoY improvement in realisations/tonne. Domestic grey cement volumes grew 9.3% YoY to 42.41 mnt in Q4.
• EBITDA margin expanded 168 bps YoY to 21.7% (193 bps above our estimates). EBITDA/tonne improved to Rs. 1,253, up 11.3% YoY and 9.4% above estimates, supported by better pricing and volumes.
• Net profit surged 20.2% YoY to Rs. 2,994 crore, aided by strong operational performance.
• In FY26, overall capacity reached 197 MTPA with 8 MTPA of new capacity commissioned across multiple locations. In April 2026, an additional 8.7 MTPA was added, taking UltraTech’s domestic grey cement capacity to 200.1 MTPA.

   Results (Consolidated)                                                      Rs cr.

Actual vs. Estimates                                                                                  Rs cr.

First cut: City Union bank Q4FY26 result: Healthy operational show, asset quality resilient

• NII came in at Rs 786 crore, up a robust 30.9% YoY and 4.5% QoQ (largely in-line), driven by strong loan growth and margin expansion on YoY basis.
• NIM contracted marginally by 2 bps QoQ to 3.87%, though it was up 27 bps YoY, reflecting the benefit of lower funding costs and improved asset quality over the prior year.
• Opex grew 21.0% YoY and 2.6% QoQ to Rs 497 crore, largely driven by business volume additions and branch capacity expansion. Operating profit was a strong beat at Rs 580 crore vs. estimate of Rs 542 crore (+7%).
• PAT came in at Rs 360 crore, up 24.9% YoY and 8.3% QoQ, ahead of our estimate of Rs 350 crore (+3% beat),
• Advances surged 26.5% YoY and 8.2% QoQ to Rs 65,875 crore, Deposit growth was also healthy at 23.3% YoY and 11.1% QoQ to Rs 78,308 crore, supporting the bank's balance sheet expansion.
• Asset quality improved meaningfully — GNPA ratio declined 26 bps QoQ to 1.91% (vs. 3.09% in Q4FY25), while NNPA ratio fell 10 bps QoQ to 0.68%, both at multi-year lows.
• We have a BUY rating on the stock and would come out with detailed report shortly.

First cut: AU Small Finance bank Q4FY26 result: Strong overall performance

• NIM expanded 24 bps QoQ to 5.96% (ahead of our estimates), driven by three factors: 12 bps decline in cost of funds, 6 bps benefit from lower slippages/higher NPA resolution, and ~7 bps seasonal benefit from lower February day count
• As a result of which NII was up 23.3% YOY helped by margin expansion and robust loan growth.
• Opex was higher due to business volume and capacity addition however lower credit cost drove PAT at 65.2% YoY to Rs832 crore (ahead of estimates)
• Overall asset quality improved on sequential basis as GNPA and NNPA ratios declined to 2.03% and 0.74%, while fresh NPA addition was also lower.
• We currently have a Hold rating on the stock and would come out with detailed note shortly

First cut: Coal India Q4FY2026 results – Strongest quarter in FY26 driven by better realizations and volume growth             

·         Q4 FY26 was the strongest quarter of FY26, with PAT up 12% YoY and revenue up 6% YoY, driven by higher e-auction volumes and better realisation. In Q4FY26, Coal India reported a consistent performance. With coal sales of 199 million tonnes (down 1% YoY), total operating income for the quarter was Rs 46,490 crore (up 6% YoY). The quarter's reported EBITDA was Rs 12,673 crore, with corresponding EBITDA margins of 27.3% (up ~57 bps YoY). Employee costs declined 2% YoY in Q4 due to 4% manpower reduction (no repeat of one-time executive pay provision which was booked in earlier quarters). Compared to Rs 593/tonne in Q4FY25, EBITDA/tonne for Q3FY26 was Rs 636/tonne. PAT increased by 15% year over year to Rs 10,908 crore. With a cumulative dividend of Rs 26.5 per share for FY26, the business announced a final dividend of Rs 5.25 per share.

·         View: CIL Q4FY26 have reported topline performance remained supportive led by rising e-Auction volumes and increased other operating income. We will review our estimates and will come out with a detailed note. Currently we have a buy rating on the stock.

Results (consolidated)                                                                                            Rs crore

First cut: Nippon Life AMC Q4FY26 result: Steady overall performance amidst volatile environment

• Nippon AMC reported a respectable performance for Q4 FY26, characterized by strong AUM growth and market share gains, which translated into a 29% YoY increase in Net Profit.
• Revenue from Operations (consolidated) at Rs 738.7 crore, up 30.4% YoY and  EBITDA at Rs 507.1 crore posted a growth of 38.9% YoY.  EBITDA margin expanded to 68.6%, up 419 bps YoY
• Total Mutual Fund QAAUM reached Rs 7.25 lakh crore growing 30.1% YoY.  Overall market share rose to 8.89% (up 24 bps QoQ). Equity market share stood at 7.16%. ETF AUM reached Rs 2.42 lakh crore, commanding a 21.4% market share. The combined Gold and Silver AUM grew 23% QoQ.
• Yield on AUM (calc) remained stable at 0.408%. Yields on Equity were reported at 53 bps, while Debt and ETFs stood at 25 bps.
• We currently have a BUY rating on the stock and would come out with detailed note shortly.