April 16, 2026

TOP NEWS

War update: Optimism further building up with both the parties planning to extend the 2 weeks ceasefire deadline. Attention is now on 2^nd meeting for the peace deal. Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports still in place, keeping markets on edge over further supply disruptions. Iran also warned it could retaliate against an extended US blockade by suspending shipments across the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea. Oil remains stable. Asian markets opened up positive. Gift nifty is also up half a percent.

HDB Financial Services Q4 (YoY): The company reported a strong performance for Q4FY26, with net profit rising by 41.38 per cent YoY to  Rs 750.6 crore. Total expenses climbed 50.38 per cent YoY to Rs 260.6 crore, up from Rs 173.3 crore in the same period last year, indicating higher operational and business-related costs. In addition, the company's Board of Directors approved a proposal to raise funds through the issuance of debt securities on a private placement basis. The borrowing plan totals up to Rs 32,824.72 crore, which includes renewal of Rs 31,974.72 crore and a fresh approval of Rs 850 crore. Gross stage 3 was 2.44 percent as of March 31, 2026 versus 2.81 percent as of December 31, 2025 and 2.26 percent as of March 31, 2025. Net stage 3 stood at 1.09 percent versus 1.25 percent in December 2025 and 1.00 percent in March 2025. Positive for the company.

ICICI Lombard: The company delivered a strong Gross Direct Premium Income (GDPI) growth of 18.2% YoY in Q4FY26 (18.4% excluding crop and mass health), heavily driven by accelerating momentum in the Motor and Retail Health segments. The Combined Ratio (COR) on a 1/n basis improved by 130bps YoY to 101.2% in Q4FY26. This was supported by lower-than-expected operating expenses, with the Expense of Management (EOM) to Net Written Premium (NWP) ratio falling to 30.4% due to reduced commissions. Investment income for ICICI Lombard in Q4FY26 was weaker primarily due to an impairment charge and broader market corrections. Q4FY26 Profit After Tax (PAT) grew by 7.3% YoY to ₹547 crore. Full-year FY26 PAT stood at ₹2772 crore (+10.5% YoY). Management remains highly optimistic about FY27, specifically regarding retail motor and health segments. We have a BUY rating on the stock and would come out with detailed note shortly.

Tejas networks: Net loss widens ns to Rs 211 crore vs loss of Rs 72 crore. Revenue declines 83% to Rs 333 crore. EBITDA loss of Rs 118 crore vs profit of Rs 121 crore. Also, CFO resigned and effective from May. Negative read through.

Brigade Enterprises :The company has signed a JDA for 8.63 acres in East Bengaluru, enabling development of a 39-acre integrated residential township with an estimated GDV of ~₹7,200 crore. The project, located in the Whitefield–Sarjapur corridor, strengthens the company’s pipeline in a key growth micro-market.

John cockerill: Won a Rs 300 crore contract to supply a Continuous Galvanizing Line (CGL#3) to JSW Steel Coated Products Limited, with the project due for completion by May 2028.

Defence stocks: As per the Director General at DRDO, Defence industry is working on a concept called the Development cum Production Partner (DCPP) model, where we are handing over the entire missile production to the private companies. This would enable private companies to work closely with DRDO. Positive read through for defence companies such as Apollo micro systems, Solar Industries and Paras defence.

HAL: As per an report, GE aerospace and HAL have reportedly reached agreement on technical matters for co-producing F414-INS6 jet engines in India, marking a significant breakthrough in a collaboration that began nearly three years ago.

GHV Infra Projects :The company has secured a construction contract worth ₹815 crore from APCO Infratech Private Limited for road and civil works in Maharashtra. The project is to be executed over 30 months, strengthening the company’s order book.

MACRO WRAP

China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, with GDP rising 5% year-on-year, up from 4.5% in Q4 and above the 4.8% consensus, driven mainly by strong export growth offsetting weak domestic demand, However, the Iran war-driven energy shock clouds the growth outlook and may weaken global demand. China industrial production rose 5.7% y/y (exp 5.3–5.5%; prior 6.3%), beating forecasts. Retail sales slowed sharply to 1.7% y/y (exp 2.3–2.4%; prior 2.8%), missing expectations. Fixed-asset investment came in at 1.7% y/y (exp 1.9%; prior 1.8%), undershooting forecasts. Property investment remained deeply negative at -11.2% y/y (prev -11.1%).Surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.4% (exp 5.2%; prior 5.3%).

The two-week ceasefire announced on 7 April was due to expire on 21 April. Mediators are seeking technical talks on the two most contentious issues, 1) the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and 2) the future of Iran's nuclear programme. Iran and the US are reportedly discussing extending the two-week truce, which is to end next week. In US data, monthly import prices rose 0.8% in March, down from 0.9% in February. The NAHB Housing Index fell by 4 points to 34 for the month of April. At the same time, Iran's joint military commander warned that its forces “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea” if the US blockade persists. The blockade was framed as “a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire”

The Nasdaq Composite Index rose for the 11th consecutive session and has rallied 15% since the low on 30 March. It was led by a rebound in the beaten-down software names. The DXY fell for an eighth consecutive session on Wed, closing marginally lower at 98.06. EUR/USD closed flat at 1.18

The DJIA dipped 0.2% while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.8% and 1.6% respectively. The US 2Y yield gained 2bp to 3.76% and the 10Y yield rose 3.6bp to 4.28%. The German 10Y yield rose 2bp to 3.04%. The UK 10Y yield rose 3bp to 4.81%. Brent crude oil prices was slightly higher by 0.2% to USD94.93. Gold fell 1.1% to USD4,791.

Datawatch: Monthly GDP from UK is expected to show a modest 0.1% m/m growth for Feb. The Eurozone publishes final Mar CPI figures, with headline inflation likely confirmed at 2.5% y/y and core CPI at 2.3% y/y. In the United States, the data docket includes initial jobless claims (consensus 213,000 for the week ending 11 Apr), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (expected at 10.0 for Apr), and industrial production data (forecast +0.1% m/m for Mar).

INVESTMENT CALL

First Cut: ICICI Lombard General Insurance Q4FY26 – Healthy growth along with improvement in combined ratio

• ICICI Lombard delivered a strong Gross Direct Premium Income (GDPI) growth of 18.2% YoY in Q4FY26 (18.4% excluding crop and mass health), heavily driven by accelerating momentum in the Motor and Retail Health segments.
• The Combined Ratio (COR) on a 1/n basis improved by 130bps YoY to 101.2% in Q4FY26. This was supported by lower-than-expected operating expenses, with the Expense of Management (EOM) to Net Written Premium (NWP) ratio falling to 30.4% due to reduced commissions. Investment income for ICICI Lombard in Q4FY26 was weaker primarily due to an impairment charge and broader market corrections.
• Q4FY26 Profit After Tax (PAT) grew by 7.3% YoY to ₹547 crore. Full-year FY26 PAT stood at ₹2772 crore (+10.5% YoY).
• Management remains highly optimistic about FY27, specifically regarding retail motor and health segments. We have a BUY rating on the stock and would come out with detailed note shortly.

OTHER NEWS

Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals : The company’s subsidiary, TheraNym Biologics Pvt Ltd, has expanded its collaboration with Merck Sharpe & Dohme Singapore Trading Pte Ltd (MSD) by signing an additional product schedule under their existing contract manufacturing (CMO) agreement dated May 2024.

Rubicon Research Limited: The company has acquired an 85 per cent equity stake in Ahmedabad-based Arinna Lifesciences Limited, marking its entry into India’s domestic formulations market, with a focus on the central nervous system (CNS) therapeutic segment. The transaction values Arinna at an enterprise value of Rs.200 crore on a cash- and debt-free basis. After factoring in net cash and other adjustments, the purchase consideration stands at approximately Rs.175.92 crore for the secondary acquisition, translating to ₹158.53 per share.

Hindustan Copper: Codelco is in discussions with Hindustan Copper to form a joint venture aimed at developing unexploited copper deposits, wherein the Chilean state-owned miner would contribute one of its undeveloped assets in Chile, While Hindustan Copper would take on the associated capital commitments. Codelco is negotiating a copper venture with Hindustan Copper Ltd. as the Chilean state-owned miner turns to foreign partnerships to develop unexploited deposits.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd is at an advanced stage of assessing plans to upgrade its South African plant, according to people familiar with the matter, as India’s second-largest automaker looks to capitalize on rising demand for affordable vehicles. The company has been working with the state-owned Industrial Development Corp. to assess the feasibility of setting up completely knocked-down, or CKD, production at its facility near the port city of Durban. Mahindra, which opened its assembly plant in 2018, manufactures its Pik Up light trucks at the facility. The vehicles are popular with local farmers and are also used by police in neighbouring Mozambique. The inclusion of CKD would represent an upgrade in local manufacturing capability and indicate deeper investment in the domestic market. A CKD facility typically imports whole vehicles as parts and then assembles them, allowing automakers to avert tariffs on shipments of finished cars.