Ambuja Cement Ltd

Ambuja’s Q4FY26 concall reflects a clear reset in expectations, with capacity, cost, and demand outlook all weaker than earlier guided. The company ended FY26 at 109 MTPA vs 118 MTPA target, with timelines pushed out and even the 140 MTPA milestone likely delayed to FY30, effectively diluting the earlier 155 MTPA FY28 ambition. On costs, there was a significant miss, with FY26 at ~₹4,400/t vs ₹4,000/t target and Q4 peaking at ₹4,500/t, driven by higher freight, fuel, and inefficiencies in acquired assets; the ₹3,650/t target remains but is delayed. EBITDA/ton came in weak at ~₹887/t, and management avoided giving forward guidance. Demand outlook has also been cut to ~5–5.5%, with FY27 growth largely dependent on utilisation ramp-up of acquired assets rather than industry demand. Near-term outlook remains cautious with soft demand trends, monsoon risks, and persistent cost pressures, indicating that recovery will be gradual and largely cost-led. Negative