Macro Outlook

The DJIA, the S&P500, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.9%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively. The Eurostoxx 50 was flat. The Dollar Index edged down 0.1% to 99.41. EUR-USD edged up 10 pips to 1.1610. The US 2Y yield rose 4bp to 3.53% and the 10Y yield gained 7bp to 4.09%. The German 10Y yield rose 6bp to 2.75%. The UK 10Y yield gained 4bp to 4.48%. Brent crude oil prices edged down 0.1% to USD63.17. Gold fell 0.2% to USD4,232.

The Fed funds futures are fully pricing in a 25bp cut for the 9-10 December meeting. They are pricing in a total cut of 59bp by June 2026 and 89bp by December 2026

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, its lowest in four months, signalling deeper sector contraction. Key declines were seen in supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment, while workforce management focused on maintaining headcounts. Positive for Gold

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reached 52.2 in November 2025, slightly above estimates but down from October's 52.5, indicating moderating sector improvement. Output increased strongly, aided by new orders, while demand growth was modest amid uncertainty. Record inventory surges reflected softer sales.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that tariffs on South Korean imports, including autos, will drop to 15% retroactive to November 1, following South Korea’s legislative actions supporting strategic U.S. investment commitments. This aligns with their trade agreement under President Trump.

The private sector RatingDog China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell into contraction at 49.9 in Nov (Bloomberg est: 50.5, Oct: 50.6), the first in four months and in line with the official manufacturing PMI which had been in contraction for a record eight consecutive months. Negative metal mining sector

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda provided a clear indication of a potential interest rate hike, suggesting such a move might occur at the BOJ's December meeting on Monday. sentimentally negative for broader markets.