Macro Wrap

The DJIA, the S&P500, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.5%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively last Friday. For the week, the three indexes rose 1.4%, 2.4%, and 3.9% respectively. The Eurostoxx 50 rose 0.3% last Friday and gained 3.5% for the week. The Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 98.18 last Friday and dropped 1% last week. EUR-USD fell 30 pips to 1.1640 last Friday but rose 50 pips for the week. The US 2Y yield rose over 3bp to 3.76% last Friday and gained 8bp last week. The 10Y yield also rose over 3bp to 4.28% last Friday and gained 7bp for the week. Brent crude oil prices rose 0.2% to USD66.59 last Friday but dropped 4.4% last week. Gold was unchanged at USD3,398 last Friday and rose 1% for the week.

US President Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine conflict. Trump announced the meeting, and the Kremlin approved of the location due to its proximity to Russia. Plans remain flexible, with a possibility of Ukraine's President Zelensky joining, any positive development could see crude oil under pressure.

China's consumer prices held steady in July 2025, exceeding the forecasted 0.1% drop, though producer prices continued their decline of 3.6% y/y consensus: -3.3% y/y; June: -3.6%. Meanwhile, sources indicate that China wants the US to ease export controls on AI chips as part of a trade deal, ahead of tomorrow's 12 August deadline for US China negotiations, after which US tariffs exceeding 100% could be reimposed on China. Sentimentally positive for industrial commodities.

A US government agency had formally ruled that gold bars would be subject to duties, causing chaos in the bullion markets. A White House official stated that the administration intends to post an executive order to clarify what it called misinformation about the imposition of tariffs on gold and other specialty products. Following which gold futures declined as traders awaited White House clarification on tariffs, following a surprise decision to impose duties on bullion bars. Futures traded $65 above the global spot benchmark, with the U.S.-London price gap falling below $60 an ounce after initially rising above $100.