Macro Wrap

India Inc: India's CPI fell to 1.55% YoY in July 2025 (from 2.10% in June), the lowest since June 2017, while food inflation (CFPI) dropped further to -1.76% YoY (vs -1.01% in June), marking the weakest food price growth since January 2019.

Inflation averaged 2.4% in the first four months of fiscal year 2025-2026, RBI recently lowered the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 3.1% from 3.7% previously.

It projects inflation to pick up to 2.1% in Q3 2025, 3.1% in Q4 2025, and 4.4% in Q1 2026.

Core inflation, softened to 4.4% vs 4.7% in June, driven by high base effects resulting from the hike in telecommunication prices last year.

Telecommunication inflation fell to 1.9% vs 10.6%, in June. Housing inflation was 3.2%, unchanged from June. Sentimentally positive Indian rupee.